US prediction markets take the lobbying fight to Congress as Kalshi, Polymarket and casinos spend more in 2026

Prediction markets are now doing what every regulated product eventually does in Washington: paying for attention. Kalshi, Polymarket, and the US casino lobby all increased lobbying spending in the first half of 2026 as lawmakers scrutinized sports, election, and war-related contracts.

1. Kalshi, the largest prediction market platform in the United States, spent $990,000 on lobbying in the first half of 2026. Including outside firms, the total rises to almost $1.8 million. That already exceeds the $1 million Kalshi spent across all of 2025, making it the company’s biggest six-month lobbying outlay so far.
2. The casino industry, which is competing directly with the growth of prediction markets in the United States, also increased its Capitol Hill push. The American Gaming Association spent $1.39 million on lobbying so far in 2026, already above its full-year 2025 spend. With outside firms included, the total is almost $1.8 million, up 30% from the first half of the previous year.
3. The Cherokee Nation, which has casino interests, spent $600,000 over the same period, also above its 2025 figure. In other words: the incumbents are treating prediction markets less like a niche trading product and more like a direct regulatory threat.
4. Polymarket, Kalshi’s main competitor, remains a smaller presence in Washington. The firm representing it spent $180,000 in the first half of 2026, on pace to match the $360,000 it spent in 2025. Polymarket is working with one lobbying firm, while Kalshi uses seven, including its internal team.
5. The political pressure is being driven by allegations that prediction markets can be used for trading on non-public information. Since early this year, reports have surfaced about bets placed before US military actions in Venezuela and Iran, and about a teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump who was suspended after being investigated for allegedly using confidential information to trade on Kalshi. Both platforms say they have strengthened internal controls, but lawmakers have continued to focus on contracts tied to sports, elections, and government decisions.

For high-risk PSPs, the useful detail here is not the political theater. It is the regulatory shape of the fight: prediction market firms are arguing their contracts are financial swaps, similar to gold or corn, and should stay under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). At the same time, legislators are pushing bills to restrict insider trading and limit contracts linked to sports, elections, or war. If you process for prediction markets, this is the debate that decides whether you are in a derivatives lane or a gambling lane.