Kalshi logs $27 billion in World Cup trading volume as prediction markets scale beyond sports

Kalshi said it roughly doubled both user traffic and trading volume versus its World Cup forecast, with about 3 million users and $27 billion in volume during the tournament. For high-risk operators, the point is not the football trivia: this is another data point showing how event contracts are pulling demand, while regulators keep treating the business like a moving target.

1. According to a Reuters source familiar with the matter, Kalshi had expected $13 billion in trading volume and about 1.5 million users during the FIFA World Cup 2026. Instead, it reported $27 billion in volume and around 3 million users, as fans tried to turn football knowledge into cash.
2. The tournament used FIFA’s expanded 48-team format and was described as the most lucrative in FIFA history. It began at Estadio Azteca in Mexico and ended in New Jersey, where Spain beat Lionel Messi’s defending champions Argentina to win the title for the second time.
3. Kalshi and Polymarket offer prediction markets on outcomes such as sports events and elections, and the category has gained popularity since the 2024 U.S. presidential election. In practice, that makes them less of a niche experiment and more of a live distribution channel for event-driven betting demand.
4. The World Cup numbers also push Kalshi toward a broader market for event-linked contracts, even as it remains in disputes with regulators in several U.S. states over alleged violations of gambling laws. This is the part PSPs and payment partners care about: volume can grow fast, while the legal framework stays fragmented.
5. Earlier this month, Kalshi said it would begin accepting bets on outcomes of clinical trials and U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory reviews, making drug-development odds public for the first time. The company has also faced criticism that these platforms are just illegal gambling operations, encourage addictive behavior, and are vulnerable to insider trading concerns.

Reuters also reported last week that Gabriel Pérez, a long-time teleprompter operator for U.S. President Donald Trump, is under federal investigation over a possible insider trading case involving Kalshi. Kalshi said it detected the suspicious activity through user onboarding and market surveillance data and reported it to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Massachusetts was the first state to seek an or...