Wynn Al Marjan Island in the UAE Could Beat Revenue Forecasts, Wolfe Research Says

Wynn Resorts’ planned casino resort in the United Arab Emirates is being modeled as more than just a shiny new flag on the map. Wolfe Research says Wynn Al Marjan Island could generate more gaming revenue than the company currently expects, with the project positioned to benefit from constrained supply, tourism demand, and the novelty of regulated casino gaming in the UAE.

1. Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino said Wynn Al Marjan Island could exceed Wynn Resorts’ current forecasts. The call comes even as Wynn Resorts shares are down some 37% year-to-date in 2026, with Wolfe Research seeing the stock rising by as much as 60% by the end of 2027.
2. The comparison point is Singapore, where a small number of integrated resorts have produced strong financial results. Wolfe Research points to Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa as examples of what can happen when tourism demand meets limited casino supply.
3. On the UAE side, the market is still expected to be tightly supplied. Industry projections cited by Wolfe Research suggest the country could eventually host four or five casino resorts, which would give early entrants like Wynn a chance to capture a large share of gaming revenue in the first few years of operation.
4. Wynn’s own December 2025 projections put annual gaming revenue from the Al Marjan Island property at up to $1.66 billion. The company also expects adjusted property earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, after management fees, of $390 million to $570 million annually.
5. Wolfe Research values Wynn’s 40% stake in the development at around $48 per share, within its $128 price target. That target is based on 8.5 times projected 2028 adjusted EBITDA plus the value of the UAE investment.

The geography matters here. Knight Frank says luxury rooms will account for 43% of the UAE’s planned additions of hotel rooms through 2030, and about one third of the world’s population is within a four-hour flight of the country. Wynn Al Marjan Island is slated to open in September 2027 and is expected to be the first integrated resort in the Middle East with a licensed commercial casino, located off the coast of Ras Al Khaimah and estimated at some $5.7 billion.

For PSPs, acquirers, and banks, the interesting part is not the headline valuation. It is the combination of a new regulated casino market, high-end hospitality, and an early-stage jurisdiction where the first licensed operator may matter more than usual. Wolfe Research also flagged risks: near-term pressure in Macau, where Wynn owns two integrated resorts, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that still hang over the UAE expansion.