Russia’s crypto exchanges lose their usual rail as banks prepare to block unlicensed services from July 1

Russia’s transition period for crypto exchangers ends on July 1, and from then on banks will have to block transfers to crypto services without a Bank of Russia license. For high-risk operators, the immediate takeaway is simple: higher fees, wider spreads, and a market that moves from informal cash-and-transfer plumbing to a more controlled, and more surveilled, setup.

1. Entrepreneur Brisov said the end of the transition period will make domestic crypto prices diverge from global ones, much like the cash dollar market. He expects a markup on purchases inside Russia and a discount for “Russian coins” on foreign venues, because overseas buyers will price in the risk attached to the asset’s origin.
2. Brisov also said investors will avoid USDT because of blocking risk. In his view, if Bitcoin and Ether are still alive in a year, they will become the main alternative to the familiar investment instruments that Russian retail users can no longer access as freely.
3. Co-owner of Digital & Analogue Partners said the Russian crypto market will become “boring and uninteresting” for most local investors, which is what the state wants. Under the restrictions for non-professional investors, only a small share of private individuals will be able to open crypto accounts, while digital assets will mainly be used by companies for cross-border settlements.
4. The catch is sanctions exposure. Brisov said a foreign exchange accepting transfers from a licensed Russian system would have to explain those payments to its own compliance teams, while public registers of the Central Bank containing all Russian platforms will look like a ready-made target list for Western sanctions authorities.
5. Technobit CEO Alexander Peresichan said pressure on cash-based exchangers, raids, and arrests will become routine. He also expects organized trading to face major hacking attacks about six months after launch, arguing that concentrating services among a few large players creates a single point of failure. Sberbank deputy chairman Anatoly Popov estimated that in the first year after the government law on crypto regulation takes effect, the annual turnover of the legal market will be about 3.5–4 trillion rubles, or 20% of today’s crypto transaction volume.