Brazil’s betting regulation focused on taxes, while a ban would push users to illegal platforms

Raimundo Wilson says Brazil’s betting framework was built around outorgas (licences) and taxes, while core questions about how the sector should actually function were left aside. His main point for PSPs and operators is blunt: if the market is pushed into prohibition, a large share of users will move to unregulated sites that do not check age or identity, do not pay taxes, and do not answer to authorities.

1. Wilson argues that the regulation of betting in Brazil was “deeply mistaken” because the government concentrated almost entirely on charging outorgas and tributes from companies, in an effort to raise federal revenue. In his view, the structure and operation of the sector ended up second in line.
2. He also rejects the attempt to ban betting outright, calling it a “huge mess.” According to him, the measure shows a poor understanding of the gambling and betting industry, including the assumption that the impact would be limited to football clubs that receive money for brand and image use, or to compulsive bettors who would simply stop making their small bets.
3. Wilson says the practical effect of a ban would be migration to illegal platforms. Those operators, unlike licensed companies, do not have proper age and identity controls, do not offer consumer protections, do not pay taxes, do not report to authorities, and generate no economic or social benefit for Brazil.
4. He adds that online sports betting emerged in the late 20th century and became established in the early 21st century in the vast majority of developed markets. His takeaway is that international experience shows prohibition is almost impossible to enforce effectively; the usual result is only a shift of users into the underground market.
5. Wilson’s view is that the Medida Provisória (provisional measure) is unlikely to survive its passage through the National Congress. Even so, he says the damage has already been done: repeated policy reversals have worsened legal uncertainty, scared off investment, and weakened the predictability that a sector moving billions of reais needs. He warns that betting companies operating in Brazil face a long period of difficulty, with significant revenue losses and possible knock-on effects on federal tax collection.

For high-risk payment providers, the operational point is the one that matters: when regulated rails become unstable, traffic does not disappear; it moves. That usually means more demand for payment acceptance in unlicensed channels, and a harder compliance environment for anyone trying to stay on the licensed side of the line.