Lula government splits over a possible ban on online betting in Brazil as officials warn of R$ 12 billion in lost revenue

The Lula government is divided over whether to issue a Provisional Measure to restrict bets. The Secom wants a total ban on online betting, while the Ministry of Finance is pushing back because it says the state could lose about R$ 12 billion in tax revenue.

1. The dispute was reported in Painel and Painel S.A. by Folha de São Paulo this Sunday (20). On one side, President Lula and Secom, led by Sidônio Palmeira, believe a tougher measure is needed to preserve popular support ahead of the elections. On the other, the economic team says that without replacing that revenue, the government will face additional pressure on the budget.
2. The fiscal issue is not theoretical. The government will already need to make budget adjustments for 2027 because of the increase in Bolsa Família, with the additional cost estimated at R$ 22.7 billion. Losing the R$ 12 billion collected from bets would make that squeeze worse.
3. One internal option under discussion is narrower: ban only online casino-style games, such as jogos do tigrinho, and tighten advertising rules for sports betting while keeping sponsorships of football clubs intact. For now, though, the total ban has the most momentum, with support from banks, retail, industry, and medical representatives.
4. The pressure is coming from both directions less than 20 days before the vote. Teams and federations from Brazil’s Série A and Série B have published a manifesto against any restriction on the market, warning of revenue losses and going as far as talking about the “end of Brazilian football.”
5. The industry’s resistance is backed by big advertising numbers. Tunad estimated that betting operators spent about R$ 1.4 billion on ads across free-to-air TV, pay TV, radio, and streaming last year. Itaú Unibanco put annual spending on advertising and sponsorship at between R$ 5.8 billion and R$ 8.8 billion. In São Paulo alone, outdoor media spending reached R$ 422 million between January 2025 and June 2026, according to Kantar Ibope Media. TVs and streaming services collect between R$ 1.4 billion and R$ 2.3 billion a year from betting advertising, and the sector warns that tighter ad rules could raise media prices by reducing contract volume.