84% of Instagram’s most recommended betting operators are illegal in Brazil, study finds

New research from the Rede em Jogo project at CondadoLab, PUC-Rio, says Instagram is steering Brazilian users toward betting operators that are not authorised in the country. For PSPs and operators, the point is simple: platform distribution can look like customer acquisition, while the underlying target market is still closed.

1. The study, published by The Intercept Brasil on Monday, analysed more than 55,000 Instagram accounts and cross-referenced them with the official list of authorised operators from the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA). It found that 84% of the betting operators most recommended on Instagram are illegal in Brazil.
2. According to the research, the issue starts when a user follows a single betting-related account. Instagram’s recommendation system then begins surfacing other profiles in the same segment, including betting sites, influencers and specialised pages. In practice, that creates a funnel from one follow to a broader set of gambling-adjacent accounts.
3. Among the 100 most recommended profiles, the accounts together have more than 6 million followers and 114,000 posts. The study grouped them into three main types: operators, content creators and media specialising in the betting market.
4. The research also found content linking betting with investment and income generation. It cites Instagram stories from a fictitious “professional gambler” named Pedro, who promoted access to a Telegram group at BRL397 ($77.18) per month, then offered both groups together for “only BRL14.91 per month on the annual plan” through a “super promotion for a premium group, which has higher odds.”
5. The report says some of the recommended profiles are companies not authorised to operate in Brazil. Others may hold licences in other countries, but that does not make them legal in the Brazilian market. It also identifies influencer niches such as tipsters, sports traders and “professional gamblers,” plus content around casino games such as Fortune Tiger.

The operational detail matters here: the study describes a recommendation loop, not just paid ads. A single follow can feed Instagram’s system enough signal to surface more betting content, including operators, media pages and influencers selling access, predictions and odds. For companies active in Brazil, that is the difference between organic discovery and accidental exposure to an illegal acquisition channel.