Ipespe Poll: Brazil’s Betting Ban Was a Top Voting Issue for 5% of Voters, 10% Among Lula Supporters

The first Ipespe/Abrapel poll for Brazil’s second round put the prohibition of online betting among the issues that shaped the vote for 5% of voters. That may sound small until you look at the segment breakdown: among President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s supporters, the topic rises to 10%, which is exactly the kind of split PSPs and operators watch when politics starts touching regulated payment flows.

1. According to the poll, banning online betting was named by 5% of voters as the main issue that influenced their first-round vote. That put it on the same level as ending the 6×1 work schedule and ahead of the increase in Bolsa Família, which was cited by 3%.
2. The importance of the issue changes sharply by candidate. Among Lula voters, the end of the bets is mentioned by 10%, double the overall average. In that group, it ranks behind health and education (19%), national sovereignty and Donald Trump’s actions (13%), economy, jobs and prices (11%), and the end of the 6×1 schedule (11%).
3. Among Flávio Bolsonaro voters, the main concerns are corruption and the crisis in the Supreme Federal Court, at 41%, and economy, jobs and prices, at 23%. The poll did not disclose the share for bets in this segment.
4. Overall, corruption and the crisis in the STF lead with 24%, followed by economy, jobs and prices at 17%, and health and education at 12%. Ipespe grouped the end of betting with economic-content issues, alongside the 6×1 schedule and Bolsa Família, a block that totals 30%.
5. The result lines up with earlier polling. An Indexa/Broadcast survey from the start of the month found that 70% support a betting ban, while 63% say a candidate’s position on betting does not affect their vote. In the second-round voting intention, Flávio Bolsonaro has 49% and Lula has 44%.

Ipespe interviewed 1,500 voters between October 6 and 8 using random digital recruitment. The poll was self-funded and registered with the TSE under protocol BR-00933/2026. The margin of error is 2.6 percentage points.