The UK and Dutch betting markets in 2027: higher taxes, tighter advertising rules, and more room for unlicensed operators

The first half of the year has already given operators enough material to fill a risk memo: in the UK, Remote Gaming Duty (RGD) is moving from 21% to 40% from April 2026, while General Betting Duty (GBD) rises from 15% to 25% on 1 April 2027. For PSPs, acquirers, and banks serving betting and casino, that means margin pressure, product-mix shifts, and more arguments about which verticals still deserve risk appetite.

1. SOFTSWISS’ iGaming Trends 2027 report frames the UK as a market where tax policy is now setting the tone. The government expects the gambling duty package to raise “more than £1bn per year once fully implemented”, and the immediate effect is not abstract: the report says the near-doubling of Remote Gaming Duty “affects margin planning, promotional budgets, and product-mix decisions from the second quarter of 2026 onwards.”
2. The tax changes are not spread evenly across the sector. Sports betting companies have been largely spared, while online casino firms are shouldering most of the burden. A smaller win for some operators, such as Rank Group, came with the abolition of the 10% Bingo Duty, but the broader direction is clear: the UK online casino vertical is getting more expensive to run.
3. Politics has not changed that trajectory. A change in Prime Minister from Keir Starmer to Andy Burnham in July has not altered the course, and Burnham is now looking at a possible increase in business rates paid by Adult Gaming Centres (AGCs). For payment firms, that matters because it can push operators to reassess which channels and venue-based businesses still make economic sense.
4. Advertising is back in the spotlight too. The report notes that betting and gaming advertising has become a topic of debate again, while operators such as Entain have highlighted the amount of unlicensed sponsorship activity in UK sports. That is the familiar high-risk catch: tighter rules on licensed operators do not remove demand, they often just move it somewhere less visible.
5. Outside the UK, the same policy logic is being discussed by market participants elsewhere. Magnho Jose, President of the Brazilian Legal Gaming Institute, said that restricting gambling advertising and taxation are “the measures most often discussed by lawmakers, often without sufficient data to back them”, warning that such steps can weaken the regulated market and create room for illegal operators. For PSPs, that is the practical issue: when compliant channels get more expensive or less visible, unlicensed flows tend to get more attractive.

With the dust settling on the tax debate, operators are still investing in the UK market. The question for high-risk payment providers is not whether the market exists; it is which parts of it still clear on economics, and which ones start to look like a reserve-heavy headache.