Brazil’s betting regulation should not move backward, says IBJR president Carlos Lima

Illegal betting operators still accounted for 38% to 44% of Brazil’s market in May 2026, down from 41% to 51% in May 2025, according to an LCA Consultoria Econômica study published by Poder360. For licensed operators and their payment providers, the message is straightforward: Brazil’s new framework is starting to bite, and blunt restrictions could hand traffic back to the grey market.

1. Carlos Lima, chief executive of the IBJR (Instituto Brasileiro de Jogo Responsável), said Brazil’s online betting regulation is still very recent and that any new rule applied to the legal market, especially prohibitions, needs to be carefully assessed so it does not end up encouraging illegal operators. In his words, restrictions can become an incentive for the clandestine market if they are introduced without enough scrutiny.
2. The LCA data points to a market that is moving in the right direction, at least on the headline numbers. Illegal bets fell from a range of 41% to 51% of the Brazilian market in May 2025 to 38% to 44% a year later. That does not make the illicit side small; it just means regulation has started to have measurable effects.
3. Consumer behavior is still messy. Based on Instituto Locomotiva research cited in the LCA study, 77% of consumers say illegal betting sites are more dangerous, and 66% say they would stop playing if they discovered a platform was operating outside the law. At the same time, 77% of bettors admitted to carrying out at least one irregular action while betting.
4. Among those irregular behaviors, 53% used sites that did not require facial recognition, 48% accessed portals whose URL did not include .bet.br, 37% made deposits with credit cards, and 23% bet with cryptocurrencies. For PSPs, that mix matters: it shows where compliance friction is being bypassed and which payment methods still appear in illicit flows.
5. Lima also blamed part of the problem on digital distribution. He said verified influencers on social networks promote both legal and illegal platforms, despite the existing ban. He argues that both platforms and content creators should be held responsible according to their role and the applicable law. Separately, he said the profile of illegal-betting users deserves attention: among Brazilians who access illegal bets, 61% admitted betting more than they should have, and the group is mainly men (61%), people earning up to two minimum wages (51%), people with education up to high school (70%), and users aged 30 to 49 (40%).

Lima listed four urgent priorities to keep reducing illegality in the sector, but the source only fully states one of them: regulation of B2B (business-to-business) providers. His point is practical rather than abstract: online game suppliers serving licensed operators can also serve clandestine platforms if there is no specific regulation for that layer.