Lula campaign cuts bets references after strategy misfire in Brazil’s presidential race

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign sharply reduced references to online betting platforms after the first round of the presidential election, following what the government itself now frames as a political miscalculation. For high-risk operators, the useful part is not the election drama itself, but the fact that betting regulation became a campaign issue that briefly mobilized football fans, casual bettors, industry workers, and digital influencers.

1. Folha de S.Paulo reviewed 46 videos posted on Lula’s YouTube channel through 15 October and found that mentions of “bets” fell from an average of 11 per video in the first-round campaign to four in the run-up to the second round. The topic appeared in every presidential campaign video between 1 September and 4 October, but Lula skipped it in two second-round appearances, including the TV Band debate broadcast on Sunday (18/10).
2. The shift followed a clear political cost. The government’s push against online betting platforms drew backlash from football club supporters, recreational bettors, sector employees, and digital influencers — groups that were not properly accounted for in the campaign’s electoral math.
3. The scale of the error was acknowledged publicly by first lady Janja da Silva. According to SBT News, in a video also seen by Folha de S.Paulo, she said through tears that she had expected the end of betting to produce the electoral impact the government wanted, and that she had expected a first-round victory because of the initiative.
4. Internal data had given the campaign some reason for confidence: a Quaest poll found that 64% of respondents knew about the end of the regulated betting market, and only 8% of that group disapproved of the government’s decision. Whether that awareness translated into votes was not clear.
5. Political scientist Carolina de Paula of the Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Políticos do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (IESP-UERJ) said campaigns constantly recalibrate their themes, and that the issue was losing force on its own. In her words, “the theme goes on losing strength and runs out. People also stop looking for it on social media.”

The football angle matters here. Clubs organized in defense of betting sites under the slogan “fim do futebol” (“end of football”), and the backlash reached the stands: on 11 October, Flamengo fans chanted insults at Lula after the team’s 1-0 win over Fluminense in the derby. In other words, a policy debate about online betting briefly turned into a live consumer-reaction test — and the reaction was not limited to operators.