A ban on bets does not remove demand; it changes where that demand lands. Kris Galloway, iGaming product evangelist at Sumsub, says the measure leaves Brazilian users with easier access to non-licensed operators and fewer barriers to the sort of offshore sites regulated PSPs usually try to keep at arm's length.
Galloway says one central point is getting missed: the market had already been systematically prepared, with new users proactively drawn into a regulated ecosystem under the promise of state protection. The ban, in his view, suddenly changes the rules for those users.
He points to Chainalysis data showing Brazil as number 1 in cryptocurrency adoption in the world. He also says about a third of internet users in the country know how to use VPNs. Put those two things together, and the barrier to entry for the non-licensed market becomes, in his words, almost non-existent.
According to Galloway, the government is not just excluding the more responsible platforms; it is opening space almost exclusively for the most toxic actors. For PSPs and acquirers, that is the usual bad trade: less visibility, more circumvention, and a harder line between licensed traffic and whatever slips through.
He describes the remaining supply as offshore operations with no responsible gambling policy, no AML (anti-money laundering), registered in dubious jurisdictions or not licensed at all, engaged in tax evasion and offering hostile games with no age controls. The point for payments teams is simple enough: when the licensed channel is squeezed, the compliance burden does not disappear — it moves to the edges.
Galloway says that is the environment left for the 32% of Brazilians who have already used betting platforms. For operators and payment providers, that number matters because it shows the demand is already there; the real question is whether it stays in a regulated flow or gets pulled into offshore rails.