Brazil weighs 180-day decree to ban online casinos and force refunds to betting operators

The Lula administration is considering a provisional measure that would ban online casinos and slot-style games, including the “Jogo do Tigrinho,” while keeping sportsbooks limited to official sports events. For high-risk PSPs, the detail that matters is not just the ban itself, but the fiscal and legal mechanics around it: compensation for lost tax revenue and prorated refunds of licensing fees.

1. The measure under discussion would restrict bets to betting on official sports events only, cutting out online casino content and slots operated by sports betting houses. According to Estadão, the proposal is being prepared inside President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration.
2. The legal design is unusual. Instead of the normal provisional measure (MP) process, where a decree takes effect immediately and Congress has up to 120 days to turn it into law, the government is studying a 180-day validity clause. In practice, the ban would only start after lawmakers vote on it, which avoids the scenario where the MP expires mid-process and the activity snaps back into legality by default.
3. The fiscal bill does not disappear; it just gets delayed. Estadão reports that the executive branch would have to absorb two costs once the ban takes effect: compensation under the Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF), because online casinos account for about 80% of betting revenue and would sharply reduce federal tax intake; and a proportional refund of licensing fees to operators.
4. Each operator paid R$ 30 million to operate in Brazil for five years. If the prohibition arrives before that period ends, the government would have to return the unused portion of those outorgas. For PSPs and acquirers servicing the sector, this is the kind of policy move that can change revenue recognition, merchant risk profiles, and the viability of casino-linked MID portfolios overnight.
5. The issue is being debated internally across Casa Civil, Ministério da Fazenda, Secretaria-Geral da Presidência, Secretaria de Comunicação Social, Ministério da Saúde, and Ministério do Esporte. Fazenda and Casa Civil declined to comment to Estadão, while allies say Lula is determined to sign the measure and has already spoken about taking “medidas drásticas” against bets.

The broader point is simple enough: the same administration that is pushing harder against online casino activity is also depending on betting revenue in the public accounts, as reflected in LOA 2026 and the budget proposal for 2027. So even if the MP clears the legal hurdle, the financial settlement with operators is still there, waiting to be paid.