Lula doubles down on betting ban as Datafolha says the move did not move votes in Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took another swipe at online betting houses on Thursday, the same day a new Datafolha poll showed that the sector ban did not change the election math or the government’s approval numbers. For PSPs, acquirers, and payment teams watching Brazil, the useful part is simple: political hostility to betting is one thing; voter behavior and policy impact are another.

1. Lula said betting houses “turned into a disgrace for poor people” and repeated that, while he is president, he will not allow money for milk, bread, and beans to be spent on bets. He made the comments in Brasília, after recordings at campaign headquarters.
2. He also targeted football clubs, saying they have no right to “extort” fans who already spend on tickets and shirts. As an alternative to sponsorships, he argued that clubs should become companies, and blamed the popularity of betting and casinos for making that unnecessary.
3. The Datafolha poll, commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo and TV Globo, interviewed 2,520 voters in 153 municipalities on Tuesday (6) and Wednesday (7). It shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 52% of valid votes and Lula with 48%; in total votes, the score is 49% to 45%, with 5% blank or null ballots and 1% undecided. The margin of error is two percentage points in either direction, and the poll is registered with the TSE under code BR-02949/2026.
4. The sharpest warning sign for the government is religious voting. Among evangelicals, who make up 28% of the sample, Flávio Bolsonaro leads 69% to 25%. The report says Secom research had pointed to stronger support for tougher betting rules among women and religious groups, especially evangelicals, but this measure did not shift that bloc.
5. Government approval also stayed flat: 49% disapprove and 48% approve. O Globo reported that disapproval remained high even after a 15% increase in Bolsa Família, to R$ 691, and the betting ban.

One detail matters for anyone assessing Brazilian payment exposure: a Quaest poll released last week found 62% support for the betting veto, but that figure combined people who already knew about the decision with people who only approved after being told about it during the interview. In other words, the policy had public support on paper, but not much evidence of broad political traction once it hit the real world.