Murilo Hidalgo says Brazil’s debt problem does not come from bets and calls Lula’s betting ban a “self-inflicted own goal”

Murilo Hidalgo, director of Paraná Pesquisas, said Brazil’s household debt is driven by tight budgets and high interest rates, not by sports betting and online games. For high-risk payment players, the political point is simple: when a government moves against bets, the financial pain does not stay inside the betting industry.

1. In an interview with Leonardo Attuch, founder of Brasil 247 and TV 247, Hidalgo said the ban on sports betting and online gaming was a “self-inflicted own goal” for President Lula. The conversation was recorded on Tuesday (6/10), two days after the first round, in which Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) finished about two points ahead of Lula in valid votes.
2. Attuch raised the question of what impact bets had on the election, and Hidalgo answered without much ceremony: “self-inflicted own goal.” He tied that view to Lula’s announcement of Provisional Measure No. 1.394/2026 on September 25, nine days before the first round, after which, as Hidalgo put it, the “bets” topic simply died out.
3. Hidalgo said the original mistake was the diagnosis that reached the president: “They told him that Brazilian debt is because of bets. It is not because of bets. Bets are one of the reasons.” He cited Paraná Pesquisas data showing that 75% to 80% of bettors do it for entertainment, not because they are addicted.
4. He compared the measure to shutting down Caixa lotteries because 10% to 20% of users may be addicted, or even to banning beer. Hidalgo also said the government did not expect the move to affect organized football fan groups and football clubs, which, in his view, helped turn the policy into a political own goal.
5. On debt itself, Hidalgo said the main issue is far more prosaic: “The money does not last until the end of the month.” He said people keep taking on R$ 50, R$ 60, or R$ 80 more debt every month, and by month-end the bills do not add up. Attuch floated overconsumption and easy credit as an explanation; Hidalgo accepted the broader consumption trend but said easy credit was a government success, not the core problem.

For PSPs, acquirers, and banks that touch betting, the useful takeaway is not the rhetoric. It is that regulatory pressure can spill into football, consumer sentiment, and politics at the same time, which is exactly the sort of mess payment flows tend to inherit.