Brazil’s gambling ban could push 21.6 million bettors to offshore sites, Blask says

Blask estimates that Brazil’s new ban on fixed-odds sports betting and online casino gaming could drive as many as 21.6 million sports gamblers to offshore platforms. For PSPs, the important part is simple: when a legal market is switched off, demand does not disappear, it migrates.

1. Blask, a gaming market intelligence firm, based its estimate on a comparative study with India, pointing to India’s online gambling ban in August 2025 as the reference point for Brazil’s expected shift.
2. Brazil’s government introduced the ban by snap decision on September 25, covering fixed-odds sports betting and online casino gaming. Licensed operators formally stopped operating in the country on October 6, switching off their websites and apps.
3. The company says Brazil has 25.2 million legal bettors, and that 86% of them are inclined to seek offshore alternatives. On Blask’s model, that is how the number gets to 21.6 million people moving away from the regulated market.
4. Blask argues the migration could happen faster than in India. Its point is that Brazilians will be able to find the same sports betting and casino products offshore, often from the same brands they used before the shutdown.
5. The market shock lands on top of a meaningful economic footprint: Blask cites $1.8 billion paid in federal betting taxes in 2025, $456 million in licensing fees for five-year authorizations, and 15,500 jobs tied to the sector, including 10,000 direct positions.

There is also a regulatory wrinkle worth watching: legal action has already suggested the measure may be overturned, and some operators have said they will continue their licensed operations locally. In other words, Brazil may still be in the messy middle phase where compliance, access, and consumer demand are all moving at once.