Netherlands collected far less than expected after raising online gambling taxes and tightening regulation

The Dutch government missed out on about USD 114 million in tax revenue after raising gambling taxes and adding new online gambling restrictions, including deposit limits. A joint report from the Ministry of Finance and the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) shows the basic problem high-risk operators know well: if you squeeze the legal market hard enough, the tax base shrinks faster than the rate goes up.

1. The government had expected the tax hike to bring in USD 123,1 million in additional revenue in 2025 and USD 246,2 million in 2026. In practice, the report says the extra take was only USD 2,3 million in 2025 and USD 65 million in 2026, leaving a cumulative gap of roughly USD 114 million versus the official forecast.
2. The KSA says the main reason was a drop in gross gaming revenue (GGR), which reduced the base on which the tax is applied. The regulator does not claim the tax increase alone caused the decline, but the report says the combination of regulatory measures hit the legal market’s activity.
3. One of the measures was monthly deposit limits in force since October 2024: USD 342 for players under 24 and USD 798 for everyone else. The market also had to absorb a ban on gambling advertising on television programs from July 2024, plus a ban on sports team sponsorships that took effect in 2025.
4. The report says the temporary lift from Euro 2024 faded quickly, while the step-by-step tightening of the rules increased uncertainty for operators. Several companies reduced operations, restructured, or exited the market because the higher tax pressure cut profitability and growth prospects.
5. The gambling tax rate rose from 30,5% to 34,2% on 1 January 2025, then increased again to 37,8% at the beginning of 2026. That is the sort of sequence that looks tidy on a spreadsheet and messy in the market.

The impact was especially sharp for state-owned operators. Holland Casino reported a reduction in pre-tax profit of about USD 30,8 million in 2025 and USD 61,6 million in 2026. Nederlandse Loterij also estimated a material hit, though the provided text cuts off before the number.