NFL asks US Supreme Court to treat prediction markets as gambling apps in Kalshi-New Jersey dispute

The National Football League has filed an amicus brief urging the US Supreme Court to classify prediction markets as gambling apps, arguing that unclear rules and limited oversight create integrity risks for sports. For PSPs and operators watching the high-risk perimeter, the point is simple: the regulatory label decides whether these products sit under gambling rules or under a different federal framework.

1. The brief was filed in the legal fight between Kalshi and New Jersey, where the state has asked the Supreme Court to resolve conflicting appeals court rulings. The dispute turns on whether prediction markets should be treated as sports wagers under state gambling law or as products regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
2. Under the current setup, the CFTC regulates prediction markets as securities trading platforms. Critics say that structure lets companies avoid gambling taxes and penalties while allowing users as young as 18 to place sports bets through contracts that look a lot like yes-or-no wagers.
3. The NFL said it does not oppose prediction markets themselves, but wants them regulated at the state level, especially because of insider trading risk. Earlier this summer, the league had already raised the same concerns directly with the CFTC and asked the agency to add more protections for sports integrity.
4. The league also flagged market manipulation, pointing to scenarios where players could deliberately miss a field goal or fumble a pass to move a market. It said markets tied to injuries and officiating decisions could also be exposed to insider trading, and it called for a minimum age of 21 for sports betting, matching traditional sportsbooks.
5. Not everyone is buying the NFL’s framing. Under the Trump administration, the CFTC has backed prediction markets in the dispute and has sued states that tried to apply gambling laws to them, arguing that the agency has exclusive regulatory authority. Kalshi’s spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said the company prioritizes market integrity, pointed to partnerships with the NHL, MLB and other sports organizations, and said sports-related markets are now available on nearly every US commodities exchange. A Polymarket spokesperson said the platform also supports sports integrity and cited its market surveillance tools and collaboration with the CFTC and professional leagues.

For high-risk businesses, the practical issue is not whether these contracts feel like bets. It is which regulator gets to decide, because that determines licensing, tax treatment, enforcement exposure, and whether a product can be sold nationwide or only state by state.